The road to 21 wins

February 2, 2009

Let me start off with the good news. The Big Ten will not be suspending Manny Harris. Which is absolutely the right call. Click here for John Beilein’s statement regarding the incident.


83742129NL027_2K_SPORTS_CLAI think now would be a good time to review the road to 21 wins. When Michigan started the season 13-3 the projection was looking good. Now that they have lost 5 of their last 6 it would seem like the projection is in jeopardy. Actually it is not.

To quickly review my projection was based on breaking the schedule down into two categories; projected wins and remaining games. I projected 17 games as wins and there were 14 remaining games of which I said Michigan had to win 4 to get to 21 wins.

So far Michigan has played 13 of the games I had projected as wins and they have won 12 and lost one (at PSU).

They have played 9 games from the remaining 14 games category. Michigan has won 2 of those games (UCLA and Duke) and lost 7.

Based on my projections Michigan should be 16-6 or 15-7 and their record is 14-8. How do I come up with this? They should have won 13 games from the projected category and 2 or 3 of the remaining games.

So you see they are not that far off the pace.

There are 4 more games I had projected as wins; Penn State, at Northwestern, Minnesota, at Minnesota.

There are 5 games left from the remaining games; at Connecticut, Michigan State, at Iowa, Purdue, at Wisconsin.

The other factor is the Big Ten Tournament.

Those projections were made before the season started. I realize now that sweeping Minnesota is unlikely.  I also think they have a good chance to win 3 of the games in the remaining group. I think they have a good chance to win these games; Michigan State, at Iowa, Purdue.

Plus you still have the Big Ten Tournament where they could pick up some more wins. Let us know what you think my submitting a comment.