Let me start off with the good news. The Big Ten will not be suspending Manny Harris. Which is absolutely the right call. Click here for John Beilein’s statement regarding the incident.
I think now would be a good time to review the road to 21 wins. When Michigan started the season 13-3 the projection was looking good. Now that they have lost 5 of their last 6 it would seem like the projection is in jeopardy. Actually it is not.
To quickly review my projection was based on breaking the schedule down into two categories; projected wins and remaining games. I projected 17 games as wins and there were 14 remaining games of which I said Michigan had to win 4 to get to 21 wins.
So far Michigan has played 13 of the games I had projected as wins and they have won 12 and lost one (at PSU).
They have played 9 games from the remaining 14 games category. Michigan has won 2 of those games (UCLA and Duke) and lost 7.
Based on my projections Michigan should be 16-6 or 15-7 and their record is 14-8. How do I come up with this? They should have won 13 games from the projected category and 2 or 3 of the remaining games.
So you see they are not that far off the pace.
There are 4 more games I had projected as wins; Penn State, at Northwestern, Minnesota, at Minnesota.
There are 5 games left from the remaining games; at Connecticut, Michigan State, at Iowa, Purdue, at Wisconsin.
The other factor is the Big Ten Tournament.
Those projections were made before the season started. I realize now that sweeping Minnesota is unlikely. I also think they have a good chance to win 3 of the games in the remaining group. I think they have a good chance to win these games; Michigan State, at Iowa, Purdue.
Plus you still have the Big Ten Tournament where they could pick up some more wins. Let us know what you think my submitting a comment.
February 3, 2009 at 11:11 am
I think that I hope you’re right. When we have lost like we have lately it’s hard to see any game as a win but it will happen. If we don’t get to 19 wins by the Big 10 tournament, it’s NIT time.
February 3, 2009 at 12:03 pm
I don’t know 18 wins plus one more likely two in the BTT might be enough.
February 3, 2009 at 12:23 pm
To get 19 wins in their last 9 games they have to play over .500 ball…..and that is goinig to be very difficult to do considering the schedule. I think this team may beat NW, it may beat Iowa…and it has a decent chance to get a W in Madison for the 1st time in while…but anything after that would be a bonus.
February 3, 2009 at 12:29 pm
How come everybody always talks about how tough it is to win on the road in the Big Ten. Doesn’t that apply to playing at Michigan also? They still have home games against PSU, MSU, Minnesota, and Purdue. I highly doubt they lose all 4 of those games.
February 3, 2009 at 1:09 pm
I hope I’m wrong, but I give them a 50/50 shot at going to the big dance. Yes, it seems everything is working against them right now. But, their future success will depend on their ability to leave it in the past and pull together for the home stretch. They must leave no doubt that they are still the same team that beat UCLA and Duke.
February 3, 2009 at 1:17 pm
If they can somehow muster up some confidence and increase their shooting percentage then they have a chance, but not if they continue to shoot like they have been as of late.